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Author Topic: This is getting rediculous.  (Read 2133 times)

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Offline razorbacker

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This is getting rediculous.
« on: January 23, 2013, 05:17:15 PM »
I went into town today to pick up some household essentials.  Toilet paper, milk, aspirin...stuff like that.  Decided to pick up some .22LR while I was restocking essential consumables.

The Wal-Martians were out, the gun store was out, and even the freaking hardware store was out.  I quit looking after three strikes because I'm not out.  I've just noticed that there are times when too much just isn't enough.

Offline BooMushroom

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2013, 06:24:39 PM »
My wife works in a sporting goods store. Their regular customers know what day of the week their stock arrives, and are outside the door at opening time. Within hours (or minutes!) of the store opening, they sell out of their week's supply of the most popular calibers, including .22.

Every week since Sandy Hook.  They used to sell mostly the ammo that was on sale that week.  Now everything goes for full price, and they could sell ten times as much if they could get it.


Offline Langenator

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2013, 06:39:55 PM »
I saw PMC Bronze 55gr .223 going for $950/1000 at a gun show weekend before last.  Saw someplace online a few days ago asking $1000 for the same amount of the same ammo.

I think the worst I saw was someplace asking $350 for 250 rounds of Federal 55 gr .223.

One place that makes their own posted on their site that it will be AT LEAST 18 weeks before your order is shipped if you order today.
Fortuna Fortis Paratus
“In the house of a wise man are stores of food, wine, and oil, but the foolish man devours all he has.” Proverbs 21:20
"We are content with discord, we are content with alarms, we are content with blood, but we will never be content with a master." -Pashtun malik, 1815

Offline cd

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2013, 07:02:02 PM »
I'm scheduled for a range trip this weekend with my wife. I have ammo in stock, but the replacement cost makes me think twice about how much I'm going to shoot of what.

It's a shame to think that way. I've pretty much turned over and reformed most of my (very) mini-arsenal (save my trusty pump shotgun ;D) , and my wife hasn't shot any of the new stuff. Will concentrate on the .22LR end, but the shortages of that round testify to its utility and value.

Offline Drang

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2013, 03:41:09 PM »
I saw PMC Bronze 55gr .223 going for $950/1000 at a gun show weekend before last.  Saw someplace online a few days ago asking $1000 for the same amount of the same ammo.

I think the worst I saw was someplace asking $350 for 250 rounds of Federal 55 gr .223...
Saw a guy selling ten rounds in stripper clips for $16.00.
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Offline pslblog

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2013, 05:04:25 PM »
Ammunition has been overpriced too long. I smell a bubble. I wouldn't want to be caught trying to sell $0.25/round ammunition at $1.00 in large quantities when the bottom falls out.

I bet that somewhere in Texas or Idaho there are some people quietly building serious capacity and are going to dump a bunch of ammunition once they have the distribution worked out. If I had a few billion from natural gas money, I'd be doing this just to tick off the Obama administration.

Offline Langenator

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2013, 11:53:29 AM »
I wonder what % of the U.S. and world markets in copper, lead, and whatever metals are needed to make brass is taken up by the civilian ammo market in the United States.
Fortuna Fortis Paratus
“In the house of a wise man are stores of food, wine, and oil, but the foolish man devours all he has.” Proverbs 21:20
"We are content with discord, we are content with alarms, we are content with blood, but we will never be content with a master." -Pashtun malik, 1815

Offline lpdbw

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2013, 02:07:16 PM »
A friend of mine just told me he can't find 9x18 ammo online.

Not 9mm or .223 or .45 or .357, but low-volume Makarov stuff?

If it's a bubble, it's all selling.

Offline Langenator

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2013, 03:50:56 PM »
What I find most amazing is the disappearance of .22LR ammo.

9x18 isn't really stocked in large quantities, and almost all of it is imported, except some specialized defensive JHP loadings that some domestic manufacturers have started making.  So if stores run out, it takes a while to restock.

Now, if Russia, the Ukraine, and other former EastBloc countries decided to cash in on some of what they've got stockpiled...that could be a bubble, and pop pretty quick.

Other relatively low volume stuff will stay scarce for a while, until the demand for the higher volume stuff slacks off enough.  Like .380 back in late 2008-09.  If you're an ammo maker, and you can run, say, 5 lines, you're going to run whatever your top 5 calibers are...say, 9x19, .40, .45, .223, and .308.  Or maybe no .308 and two lines running 9mm.

And you do that until you get caught up on the high volume stuff, then you worry about lower volume stuff.  (I'm borrowing that from Tam at VFTP.)
Fortuna Fortis Paratus
“In the house of a wise man are stores of food, wine, and oil, but the foolish man devours all he has.” Proverbs 21:20
"We are content with discord, we are content with alarms, we are content with blood, but we will never be content with a master." -Pashtun malik, 1815

Offline Suburban

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2013, 10:13:26 PM »
What I find most amazing is the disappearance of .22LR ammo.

Grandson wants me to take him to the range so tonight I decided to visit the SuperWalmart and see what they had in ammo.  Almost totally sold out.  The clerk told me they have not gotten any .22 in the last 6 weeks.  The only one of the popular calibers they had was 4 boxes of .357 FMJ target ammo at $28 per box.  They had maybe 1/3 of the long gun display case filled.  They had "3 boxes per customer" signs, but nothing to sell and no word on when they might see more.

Offline Langenator

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #10 on: January 26, 2013, 09:23:36 AM »
Our Wally World was cleaned out of everything except stuff like .22-250, .25-06, and .410 a few weeks ago.

And, oddly, the upper end Federal personal defense JHP rounds in .45 ACP.  The stuff that costs like $25+ for 20 rounds, even before things got nutty.
Fortuna Fortis Paratus
“In the house of a wise man are stores of food, wine, and oil, but the foolish man devours all he has.” Proverbs 21:20
"We are content with discord, we are content with alarms, we are content with blood, but we will never be content with a master." -Pashtun malik, 1815

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #11 on: January 26, 2013, 10:40:21 AM »
I just checked at Ammoman, and it looks like he's out of everything!   :o
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline oldguy52

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #12 on: January 26, 2013, 12:41:40 PM »
This too will pass....

The Golden Rule: Buy low, sell high.

Stand aside and let the stampeding sheep run by. Patience is almost always rewarded.
O.G.

"Stupid is supposed to be painful, it's nature's way of learnin' ya" - Me, 1994

When one finds himself living in interesting times, it is prudent to become as uninteresting as possible.... Me, 2011

Offline cd

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #13 on: January 26, 2013, 12:49:58 PM »
This too will pass....

The Golden Rule: Buy low, sell high.

Stand aside and let the stampeding sheep run by. Patience is almost always rewarded.
I suppose the Silver Rule would read: Dollar cost average, if you can't buy in bulk and/or time the market.

Suppose someone had 1,000 rounds in stock at .25ea. Then buys another 100 rounds at $1.00ea. Average cost? .32ea. Not awful.

Dollar cost averaging is simpler to implement.

Offline oldguy52

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #14 on: January 26, 2013, 02:10:43 PM »
I suppose the Silver Rule would read: Dollar cost average, if you can't buy in bulk and/or time the market.

Suppose someone had 1,000 rounds in stock at .25ea. Then buys another 100 rounds at $1.00ea. Average cost? .32ea. Not awful.

Dollar cost averaging is simpler to implement.

I suppose one could do that.

On the other hand, if he had 1000 rounds in stock already, why would he want to.

The small gain doesn't justify the large price.

One would be better off to invest that money in some other prep for now.
O.G.

"Stupid is supposed to be painful, it's nature's way of learnin' ya" - Me, 1994

When one finds himself living in interesting times, it is prudent to become as uninteresting as possible.... Me, 2011

Offline cd

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #15 on: January 26, 2013, 02:47:28 PM »
I suppose one could do that.

On the other hand, if he had 1000 rounds in stock already, why would he want to.
Well, if his target stock level was, say, 2,500. If he one bought 100/month for the next 15 mos, he would arrive at their target with a minimum of thought given to market timing. It would've been better had he started two, or even five, years ago. But for someone whose inventory levels are sitting below their comfort zone, dollar cost averaging isn't the worst thing they could do.

Quote from: oldguy52
The small gain doesn't justify the large price.

One would be better off to invest that money in some other prep for now.
I agree that other preps might take priority in temporary periods of madness. But I'm thinking this madness is not going to be just a matter of weeks. Rather than panicking and buying 1,500 rounds right now on a credit card, most folk would probably be better off dollar cost averaging with a balanced approach across all categories of preps, it seems to me.

Offline razorbacker

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #16 on: January 26, 2013, 03:07:57 PM »
I contacted a Wal-Martian that should know.  They tell me that the warehouse is splitting up received ammo and shipping stores partial orders as they come in.  This superstore got two boxes (100 rounds of .22LR each) their last shipment.  They don't know when more will come in.  They don't know what to say, long story short.

Shot shells, not buckshot, not slugs, but #6 small game shot, are limited to two (25 round) boxes per customer.  And they don't have many of those, either.

Sheriff Joe's advice about using the trusty ol' double barrel for protection?  Yeah.  That's been 'overtaken by events'.

Don't worry so much about not being able to get your evile black rifle.  Worry about what you've got once you've gotten it.  What you have may well turn out to be a stick.  And not a particularly effective stick, at that.

Offline Suburban

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #17 on: January 26, 2013, 08:02:31 PM »
Grandson wants me to take him to the range so tonight I decided to visit the SuperWalmart and see what they had in ammo.  Almost totally sold out.  The clerk told me they have not gotten any .22 in the last 6 weeks.

Today the largest Gun Show in Colorado came to Denver.  The Grandson had never been to a gun show so we went there before going to the range.  I had been buying boxes of 500 to 555 rounds of 22LR at Walmart for $18 to $20 each.  In this huge gun show there were only two dealers with 22LR for sale.  One had just two boxes left at $50 per box.  The other had a somewhat bigger supply at $75 per box.  Any dealer that had ammo, or magazines, or "black rifles" was mobbed.  I bought a few small items and left.

Offline Langenator

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #18 on: January 26, 2013, 10:21:45 PM »
I imagine anyone who works for an ammo manufacturer is clocking a bunch of overtime.  Along with companies that make components.

The question is, how long will it take for all of this to work it's way through the system?

The one ammo supplier on my bookmark list that a) actually makes the rounds themselves, and b) is posting times, was backordered 18 weeks last I looked, about a week ago.  And they're not a big company.

I think we're looking at 9-12 months before things normalize, at best.
Fortuna Fortis Paratus
“In the house of a wise man are stores of food, wine, and oil, but the foolish man devours all he has.” Proverbs 21:20
"We are content with discord, we are content with alarms, we are content with blood, but we will never be content with a master." -Pashtun malik, 1815

Offline Les Nessman

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #19 on: January 27, 2013, 07:31:08 AM »
"I think we're looking at 9-12 months before things normalize, at best."

That sounds about right.

If you have 'enough', sit tight till the madness subsides.
If you don't have 'enough', then dollar cost averaging is a good idea. Yeah, you're going to pay the "stupid tax" by not being prepared already; but oh well. We've all done dumb things and paid the price. Learn from this and move on.
'Enough ammo' is worth paying extra if you have to.

Offline Langenator

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #20 on: January 27, 2013, 11:50:01 AM »
I'm trying to wait it out as best I can.  Since I shoot 3-gun, that part may be difficult.

But otherwise I'm trying to concentrate on stuff that hasn't shot up - like .30 carbine from the CMP, and surplus 7.62x54R.

That, and other preps.
Fortuna Fortis Paratus
“In the house of a wise man are stores of food, wine, and oil, but the foolish man devours all he has.” Proverbs 21:20
"We are content with discord, we are content with alarms, we are content with blood, but we will never be content with a master." -Pashtun malik, 1815

Offline Langenator

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Fortuna Fortis Paratus
“In the house of a wise man are stores of food, wine, and oil, but the foolish man devours all he has.” Proverbs 21:20
"We are content with discord, we are content with alarms, we are content with blood, but we will never be content with a master." -Pashtun malik, 1815

Offline Langenator

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2013, 12:18:52 PM »
OK, a friend of mine - retired Army, level headed, not given to panic or hyperbole, posted this link on FB.

Nationwide Ammo Shortages: The Ammo Is Gone

A few interesting bits, like that Bass Pro doesn't expect to see any .22lr til April.

I'm not familiar with the parent side, offgridsurvival.com.  Anyone know anything about them, especially as to their reliability and/or tendency toward hyperbole, exaggeration, etc.?
Fortuna Fortis Paratus
“In the house of a wise man are stores of food, wine, and oil, but the foolish man devours all he has.” Proverbs 21:20
"We are content with discord, we are content with alarms, we are content with blood, but we will never be content with a master." -Pashtun malik, 1815

Offline ND Martin

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2013, 05:37:16 PM »
Offgridsurvival is a solid site.  They post good prep strategy/information and their news categories are well attributed and seemingly not prone to hyperbole. 

I monitor hundreds of blogs and news sites and the ammo shortage is quite real and widespread according to numerous verifiable reports. 

The latest info from the fringes is that Big Sister is staging huge caches of ammunition around the country.  Are there legitimate reasons that DHS has purchased so much ammo or are the crazies right that they're staging resources for martial law following a massive social dislocation? 


Offline Flight-ER-Doc

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Re: This is getting rediculous.
« Reply #24 on: January 29, 2013, 06:59:01 PM »
Nice of them to pack it in smaller containers...easier to move
Yes, I'm a physician.  No, I'm not YOUR physician.  Nothing I say here is medical advice.

Do I treat Glocks like I treat my lawn mowers?  No, I treat them worse.  I treat my defensive weapons like my fire extinguishers and smoke detector - annual maintenance and I expect them to work when needed


 


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