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Author Topic: I'm not sure just what to think about this.  (Read 2566 times)

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Offline razorbacker

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I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« on: January 18, 2013, 01:23:57 PM »
I decided that I wanted some more easily recognized silver just in case (gold costs so much that trying to keep up and handle smaller dollar amounts is physically taxing.  Have you seen just how tiny $100 worth of gold is?  It'll get lost in the pocket lint.).  I looked for more pre '64 US dimes, quarters, halves, and dollars.  Haunting the local pawn shops was taking so much time (and their markup was a bit much) that I decided to buy online.

I found a dealer, ordered nominal $ amount of junk silver, and got exactly what I expected.  Old pre '64 coins that looked like you'd expect.  A couple of unworn coins obviously from someone's collection but mostly coins that had been in common circulation.  I tested him again, and ordered another small $ amount.  Same thing.  So I ordered what is to me a large amount.  I waited, and waited, and just as I was thinking "Crap, I done been scammed"  the package arrived.  From another shop in a different state than the first shop.

What I got was $X face value of recently minted proof silver coins.  These coins, to collectors, fetch a pretty premium over bullion value.  I called the guy, thinking that maybe a new employee had made a mistake and offered to return the coins in exchange for what I had actually ordered.  He said no, he was affiliated with the guy in the first shop, and that between them they'd been unable to come up with the pre '64 coins to fill my order but felt that since they'd made the deal that they should honor the deal, and all they had to send was proof silver coins.  So they sent the collector grade silver, in the agreed upon face value.

My question is, are there that many people making actual, concrete plans that the supply of junk silver has run out?

If so, I'm thinking that it may be later than most folks think.

Offline Ken

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2013, 01:30:58 PM »
You might think about silver or gold wire, for the ease of splitting a payment.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
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Offline razorbacker

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2013, 02:19:16 PM »
I want something universally recognized, and widely accepted.  I don't want to have to prove the authenticity every time it's used.

Offline oldguy52

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2013, 02:37:57 PM »
I want something universally recognized, and widely accepted.  I don't want to have to prove the authenticity every time it's used.

I'd say your dealer friend is pretty good people.

That said, I don't have any idea how many people are squirreling away silver coins. I do know that I can't carry all of mine at once.

Agreed on the recognized and accepted thing. The only issue will be what it may be worth at any given moment, in any given place. If things get bad enough many people may decide that they'd rather trade for things more directly useful than money, even in the form of PMs.
O.G.

"Stupid is supposed to be painful, it's nature's way of learnin' ya" - Me, 1994

When one finds himself living in interesting times, it is prudent to become as uninteresting as possible.... Me, 2011

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2013, 05:35:35 PM »
Here's the thing.  Coinage (or something - a lotta folks post it might end up being ammo) that works as an intrinsic store of value will be necessary even in the rudimentary sort of economy likely to remain functioning in a true SHTF situation.  Joe may want to trade his deer for some corn, and you don't have corn.  So Joe takes some silver coins, which everybody accepts as having some standardized value, and you get his deer.  Joe then trades his coins to somebody else for the corn he wants.

Absent the role of the coins, nobody trades for anything in that situation.
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2013, 05:35:51 PM »
Razor, you have a great coin dealer there.
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline razorbacker

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #6 on: January 18, 2013, 06:13:16 PM »
When I get more paper money, I'll contact them again.  I was very satisfied with their business practices.

Offline Dale00

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2013, 08:31:00 PM »
Quote
My question is, are there that many people making actual, concrete plans that the supply of junk silver has run out?

If so, I'm thinking that it may be later than most folks think.

Looks like a good supply is available on Ebay - A roll of circulated dimes is going for around $140. And the stock market hit a 5 year high today? Go figure
"Test everything. Hold onto the good." 1 Thes 5:21

Offline razorbacker

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2013, 11:11:26 PM »
Quote
And the stock market hit a 5 year high today? Go figure

Okay, I'll play.  The reason that the stock market hit a 5 year high today is because the market once again reached the level that it was in 2007.

Not adjusted for inflation, of course.  Not that inflation actually exists.  Except if you eat.  Or drive.  Or heat or cool your home.

Say, did you hear about the college football player's imaginary girl friend?

Offline ND Martin

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2013, 11:19:31 PM »
APMEX (my PM supplier of choice) has junk silver on the shelf...and just about anything else you can think of.  Fast, reliable, honest people, decent prices.

Offline ND Martin

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2013, 11:56:42 PM »
...some silver coins, which everybody accepts as having some standardized value...

Ah, there's the rub.  It will be very interesting to see how that 'standardized value' is determined and communicated in a world without a bankster-manipulated spot market. 

There may come a time when a bag of salt is worth more than a bag of silver dimes.

Offline Flight-ER-Doc

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2013, 06:44:41 AM »
People will exchange things they have for things they need, at a mutually agreeable exchange rate.

Right now, we do that with stuff called 'money'.  This is (right now) magical paper printed by a private concern that is supposedly backed with the full faith and credit of the United States....whatever that may be worth.

In the past, people used actual hard coins...made from various long-lived and rare metals like gold or silver.  The exchange rate then was as it will be:  People will figure it out, and there will not be some governmental overseer telling you what the 'official' exchange rate is.

Even before that, people would trade what they had (e.g. corn they grew and harvested) for what someone else had (e.g. leather from cattle they raised, slaughtered and tanned), and that worked pretty well too.  It was only when an intermediary became necessary (say, a shoe maker to take the leather and turn it into a pair of boots) that 'money' really started to take off.  Since the shoemaker didn't want to become a warehouser of corn and cattle, etc.

We have some precious metals, both on-hand and in equities.  I have purchased previously circulated silver coins from AMPEX, Northwest Territorial Mint and Kitco, without problems.  I also visit the occasional pawn shop or coin shop in my travels and buy small quantities of silver or gold coins, if the shop owner and I can come to an agreement on the rate of exchange between his product and the fantasy paper I have in my pocket.  Over the years, I have managed to purchase this real money at prices averaging far less than current prices, even accounting for inflation.

What good is this?  Here is a link http://commanderzero.com/blog/2013/01/19/gun-day/ to an explanation.

And in honor of Gun Appreciation Day even though I am in PDARK right now, I will be purchasing a new firearm...This one :)





#$#%#$@%$#% you, Obama, Biden, Feinstein, Bloomberg, Reid, et al.


There must be at least 550 lamposts in DC...anyone have some rope?
Yes, I'm a physician.  No, I'm not YOUR physician.  Nothing I say here is medical advice.

Do I treat Glocks like I treat my lawn mowers?  No, I treat them worse.  I treat my defensive weapons like my fire extinguishers and smoke detector - annual maintenance and I expect them to work when needed

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2013, 09:03:32 AM »
Quote
Anybody got some rope?
I'll trade you for some corn.  ;D
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #13 on: January 19, 2013, 09:08:57 AM »
Here's the thing about silver coins (and gold).  All preppers are aware that US coins prior to a certain date were ninety percent silver, and so they know there is a certain quantity of that PM in the coin.  (No, I won't get into government degradation of PM currency, as with Rome).  And PMs have a multi-millennial history as stores of value.  Put a ten thousand dollar gold watch next to a 100,000 dollar Tourbillion that doesn't look golden, and the standard dumb crook with take the cheaper watch every time.  "Go for the gold!"

Many relatively durable, portable, and rare substances have become "money" in the past, but PMs have been by far the most popular for at least three thousand years.  There are several good reasons for that.

"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline Ken

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #14 on: January 19, 2013, 10:06:30 AM »
Hmm, you know, the way my local credit union is set-up, between the CU and Visa, they could "mint" their own "money" and act as exchange and control.  A super barter system, if you will.

At least the physical requirements are there, whether you could organize such an exchange is another story.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline oldguy52

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2013, 10:45:22 AM »
Here's the thing about silver coins (and gold).  All preppers are aware that US coins prior to a certain date were ninety percent silver, and so they know there is a certain quantity of that PM in the coin.  (No, I won't get into government degradation of PM currency, as with Rome).  And PMs have a multi-millennial history as stores of value.  Put a ten thousand dollar gold watch next to a 100,000 dollar Tourbillion that doesn't look golden, and the standard dumb crook with take the cheaper watch every time.  "Go for the gold!"

Many relatively durable, portable, and rare substances have become "money" in the past, but PMs have been by far the most popular for at least three thousand years.  There are several good reasons for that.



I agree that PMs have the best chance of retaining value or not becoming worthless. People have recognized them as valuable since almost the beginning of time and that is not likely to go away.

However, IF a disaster was wide spread and especially if communications, electronics, etc. are badly disrupted, values of the things we need or want are going to change with our priorities.

For instance: If you happened to be a survivor in a larger town and 80% of the population is either dead or gone elsewhere, what do we imagine housing would be valued at? My guess is not much when you can walk in a few minutes to a hundred empty houses with no one to lay claim to them.

How much would a bushel of corn be worth? How much if you haven't eaten for 3 days?

How about a computer, worth quite a bit today, but almost useless even though it may actually function, if there is no ISP to connect to.

A car that you may or may not be able to get fuel for?

Sure, people will figure out a relative value for things sooner or later, but for the first while it will probably be difficult to know just how much corn your ounce of silver should buy.
O.G.

"Stupid is supposed to be painful, it's nature's way of learnin' ya" - Me, 1994

When one finds himself living in interesting times, it is prudent to become as uninteresting as possible.... Me, 2011

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2013, 11:00:10 AM »
Quote
Sure, people will figure out a relative value for things sooner or later, but for the first while it will probably be difficult to know just how much corn your ounce of silver should buy.
Yes, but that would be true for anything you use as money - including straight up trades.  How much coffee would your corn be worth, for instance?

That's what free markets are for.  And, if nothing else, markets in SHTF are likely to be pretty darned free.
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline oldguy52

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #17 on: January 19, 2013, 12:39:24 PM »
Yes, but that would be true for anything you use as money - including straight up trades.  How much coffee would your corn be worth, for instance?

That's what free markets are for.  And, if nothing else, markets in SHTF are likely to be pretty darned free.

Oh yes, I absolutely agree, the relative values of most everything will change.

But, The problem is, there is a time problem. What is the difference between the time it takes for people to become confident enough in some form of money that is inedible and the time it takes to starve to death?

What I am getting at here is; IF one is planning to use PMs or any other form of money to trade immediately after a disaster AND has not put away enough provisions to last until a free market can become established.... Well IMHO he may not be around to see it happen.

I know or at least I don't believe anyone here (you and me for sure) is thinking about prepping that way, but I don't doubt there are people who are.

If wheat is almost impossible to lay your hands on, but you happen to have 500 lbs of it, how much gold would you take for yours? You wouldn't... Neither would I.
O.G.

"Stupid is supposed to be painful, it's nature's way of learnin' ya" - Me, 1994

When one finds himself living in interesting times, it is prudent to become as uninteresting as possible.... Me, 2011

Offline Flight-ER-Doc

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #18 on: January 19, 2013, 12:40:52 PM »
Hmm, you know, the way my local credit union is set-up, between the CU and Visa, they could "mint" their own "money" and act as exchange and control.  A super barter system, if you will.

At least the physical requirements are there, whether you could organize such an exchange is another story.


The Constitution of the United States explicitly gives the right to coin money to the Government (specifically Congress, through various laws they pass).... (Article I Section 8).  Recently someone was convicted of counterfiting because he coined his own money and offered it to people who willingly used it.  

Like the Mob, Government hates competition.
Yes, I'm a physician.  No, I'm not YOUR physician.  Nothing I say here is medical advice.

Do I treat Glocks like I treat my lawn mowers?  No, I treat them worse.  I treat my defensive weapons like my fire extinguishers and smoke detector - annual maintenance and I expect them to work when needed

Offline Ken

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #19 on: January 19, 2013, 01:20:16 PM »

The Constitution of the United States explicitly gives the right to coin money to the Government (specifically Congress, through various laws they pass).... (Article I Section 8).  Recently someone was convicted of counterfiting because he coined his own money and offered it to people who willingly used it.  

Like the Mob, Government hates competition.

Local currency isn't uncommon in the US.  (usually localized, as in community)  But here we're talking about debit cards. rather than minting actual currency.  And we're talking about for duration of emergencies.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline Langenator

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2013, 02:18:45 PM »
I seem to recall that so-called 'bank notes' were quite common up to a certain point in US history.  And that point was well after the ratification of the Constitution.

The basis for the notes' acceptance was that they could be redeemed for gold at the issuing bank.
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Offline ND Martin

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2013, 09:00:29 AM »
Precious metals are an effective mechanism for the preservation (and increase if you're a trader) of wealth in the time before a complete collapse.  As the value of the dollar diminishes, the value of the metals reflects the inflation.  Relative value with other commodities remains more or less constant.  Chart the price of gas against gold instead of dollars and you'll see this clearly.  Variations and trends in these relative values present opportunities for the observant investor/trader.

For example, there is a global shortage of silver at a time of increasing demand and this is making silver a more lucrative trading vehicle.  But ya gotta be quick as there is significant volatility in these markets.

Timing is everything.  When the collapse (of the dollar) seems imminent, there will be a rush to hard assets.  This is when I will be selling silver and using the proceeds to top off the pantry.  The prices of everything will be higher, but the increase in silver value will compensate for the lost buying power of the dollar.

Offline Ken

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2013, 08:20:01 PM »
I'm afraid the myth of precious metals being a hedge against a down economy, doesn't quite hold.

Why is the Washington Monument capped with aluminum?  Because at the time, it was the single largest chunk of aluminum, in the world.  Napoleon prized his aluminum flatware set over that of his platinum or gold flatware sets.  The development of the electric furnace enabled the economical extraction of aluminum, from clay or bauxite. The price of aluminum fell, in just a few years, to the point, that we use it for food wraps.

Right now, PRI is working on the capture of a small metallic asteroid.  Within 8 years, (if successful) they will have available 30 times more metal than mankind has used since the beginning of known history. At 2001 prices, that's 8 trillion dollars of nickel/iron, 6 trillion dollars of cobalt, and 6 trillion dollars of a mixture of platinum, silver, gold etc.  And that is one of the smaller metallic asteroids.

Then there's the development of multiple methods of power generation.  You've seen solar photovoltaic gets WAY better, in just a few years (still not quite there, as far as I'm concerned )  But I see the Chinese holding back on the export of thorium. (Think Thorium molten salt reactor). The development small pocket reactor factories.  (Size of a hot-tub). Fracking for the easier extraction from shale of gas and oil. Etc.... (Of course, there's my favorite, a Fusactor )

If even some are even partially successful, than power intensive techniques, like the Japanese method of extraction of metals and rare earths, from seawater, and the use of Sabatier Chemical Reactors become economical.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline oldguy52

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2013, 08:54:18 PM »
Quote
I'm afraid the myth of precious metals being a hedge against a down economy, doesn't quite hold.

I expect what you say is probably true, or will be somewhere out in the future.

In my lifetime probably not so much.

Honestly though, that amount of metal(s), considering the rate we're piling up debt, might not be enough to make a lot of difference once the expense of retrieving it is taken out. I expect a few people at PRI will become fabulously wealthy though.

Edit: forgot to add: Been wondering why we aren't already building thorium reactors. Seems like a no brainer to me.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2013, 09:03:13 PM by oldguy52 »
O.G.

"Stupid is supposed to be painful, it's nature's way of learnin' ya" - Me, 1994

When one finds himself living in interesting times, it is prudent to become as uninteresting as possible.... Me, 2011

Offline Ken

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Re: I'm not sure just what to think about this.
« Reply #24 on: January 20, 2013, 08:59:24 PM »
Not really, you got the sun for pretty good smelter, and AMUN 3554 is kinda delivering itself.  It will have a near Earth approach around 2020.  And like I said, there's all those other methods of power generation coming online........
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke


 


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