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Author Topic: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?  (Read 2606 times)

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Offline Mr. Bingley

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #50 on: January 26, 2013, 12:20:33 PM »
ok, so the key seems to be closing-of-circuits. does that mean my portable electronics would survive if i took the batteries out so there would be no internal complete power loop? in other words are these cobbled together faraday cages unnecessary if one simply stores the electronic without the batts?

Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #51 on: January 26, 2013, 12:41:18 PM »
Ken, nobody, least of all me, is arguing that there are not many things we could do to protect ourselves against HEMP, CME, Carrington Events, and other EM phenomena.  The problem is, we aren't doing those things!  And one of the reasons we aren't is that too many folks like Psi just don't seem to understand the nature of the threat - why prepare for something that is harmless or impossible?  If EMP isn't a threat, why do anything about it at all?

That's why I push back against the misinformation peddled by these folks, and why I'm writing a major two-book novel in order to raise awareness of the scope of the threat.

BTW, I haven't seen anything posted here from any of you that I wasn't already aware of, including all the portable non-nuke systems.  And you do know that such weapons were admittedly (by Don Rumsfeld) used against Saddam Hussein in 2003?

A Superconducting E-bomb

Yes, I understand, you'll be glad to hear, there are about 5 companies working on making a smart-grid system (hold on, part of the smart-grid is to beef up the protection against EM threats)

The reason why they are trying out the systems in Texas, is that they only have to deal with one government agency rather than the 22 they would have to deal with, in the other parts of the US.

But you might check the report from the EMP Commission on their recommendations on what needs to be done, to protect the US.

<www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473-EMP_Commission-7MB.pdf>
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
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Offline ND Martin

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #52 on: January 26, 2013, 12:47:06 PM »
does that mean my portable electronics would survive if i took the batteries out so there would be no internal complete power loop?  

Not necessarily.  The principle at work here is induction with the EMP acting as the magnet and any conductor acting as a coil.  If the EMP is sufficiently strong (and the effect does drop off with the square of the distance), sufficient current can be induced to fry the sensitive innards of electronic gear.  Sensitivity is the issue, really.  Gear that's switched on already has current flowing and the EMP effect is additive, so the chance of damage is greater.  Old-fashioned tube gear is more likely to survive EMP simply because it's less sensitive to current spikes than transistors.

This is part of the problem with EMP.  Not just big transformers are affected.  Consider for example all the electronics controlling the signalling/switching in the railway system that will need to be replaced...in the worst case with flagmen and lanterns.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2013, 01:01:58 PM by ND Martin »

Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #53 on: January 26, 2013, 12:49:47 PM »
ok, so the key seems to be closing-of-circuits. does that mean my portable electronics would survive if i took the batteries out so there would be no internal complete power loop? in other words are these cobbled together faraday cages unnecessary if one simply stores the electronic without the batts?

No, you need to break the circuit, so that you don't have complete circuits to act as antennas, to receive the external energies from a EMP.  Easier to just place it in a faraday cage.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #54 on: January 26, 2013, 01:00:57 PM »
Ah...so the weapon has been 'weaponized'.  When can I have a pocket EMP to fry the rude and ubiquitous cells and 'pods that so many are compelled to carry?

[OT aside]Seriously, the laser focusing is interesting.  Could one modulate a low-power laser pointer with a frequency that would interrupt a cell-phone connection at 50 yards?  My neighbor sits on her porch for hours loudly jabbering nonsense.  I've looked at cellphone jammers, but they're more or less omnidirectional and not powerful enough to do the job.  Of course, this is just hypothetical as interrupting cellphone transmissions is against the law. [/OT]

It's possible, but a unit like that isn't going to be small.  The materials needed to achieve sufficient energy density can become expensive, that's why so many EMP weapons default to using explosive to do that little trick.

Heh! I can't really see a laser pointer with a chunk of explosive to give the laser pointer the added umph, of EM.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline ND Martin

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #55 on: January 26, 2013, 01:04:03 PM »
Heh! I can't really see a laser pointer with a chunk of explosive to give the laser pointer the added umph, of EM.

Don't need to fry the phone.  Just enough signal to overpower the signal from the cell tower long enough for a disconnect.

Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #56 on: January 26, 2013, 01:10:28 PM »
Don't need to fry the phone.  Just enough signal to overpower the signal from the cell tower long enough for a disconnect.

In that case, just modify a cell phone to keep sending out a false hangup.  Be easier.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline Mr. Bingley

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #57 on: January 26, 2013, 02:03:30 PM »
No, you need to break the circuit, so that you don't have complete circuits to act as antennas, to receive the external energies from a EMP.  Easier to just place it in a faraday cage.

The point I am stumblingly trying to grasp is what is the essential difference between my battery powered electronics sitting in my house with the batteries removed and these transformers

No, the power-lines, themselves would act as antennas, but only if they are hooked up.  Unless the transformers are somehow grounded, there shouldn't be complete circuits, on inactive transformers.

it seems to me that the only difference is a matter of scale. but again, i am only trying to understand.

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #58 on: January 26, 2013, 03:07:11 PM »
Mr. B, this answer is reasonably accurate:

How can an electromagnetic pulse destroy electronic devices
One word:induction. When an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) hits, a big magnetic field "sweeps" everything in its path. The moving magnetic field (because it travels out from where it was created) will induce electromotive force (EMF) or voltage, if you prefer, in all kinds of stuff. There are tiny traces on circuit boards, and there are component leads and all kinds of conductors that are acting like little antennas inside electronic equipment. And these little antennae will "receive" the magnetic "signal" from the pulse and convert some of its energy into voltage. Because the pulse is so large, the voltage will be high, and will be high enough to damage components and circuits in all kinds of equipment. This will knock electronic devices out of commission. Permanently.Shielding is possible, but we can only do a limited amount of that.
Short answer: No, removing batteries does not have anything to do with the phenomenon by which EMP destroys electronics.  Plugged in electronics will take a hit both from this method, as well as the long waves that affect power lines and such, so unplugging them will eliminate one, but not both, potential sources of damage.

As Ken points out, the best protection against EMP for small electronics are Faraday Cages.
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #59 on: January 26, 2013, 03:07:43 PM »
It's not just a matter of scale, a transformer is optimal, for handling energy, but that makes it even more vulnerable to an EM event or attack. On the scales we are talking about, portion of transformers are likely to melt.  With your portable electronics, some of the components are likely to burn out, but that's would mostly be the extent of you problems, with the smaller equipment.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #60 on: January 26, 2013, 03:14:26 PM »
Let me explain further:

HEMP (High altitude nuclear driven EMP) produces three separate waves:

Electromagnetic pulses explained - Telegraph

A nuclear electromagnetic pulse produces three waves of energy. The first is a very fast-moving, brief and intense electromagnetic field. It is created when gamma radiation from the nulcear explosion knocks electrons out of atoms in the earth's upper atmosphere. These electrons start moving downward and interact with the earth's magnetic field - creating a very large, brief pulse.

The second wave is generated by scattered gamma rays. It is similar to the pulses caused by lightning strikes and as such tends to be less damaging to equipment.

The third wave is a very slow pulse, lasting tens to hundrds of seconds, caused by the nuclear detonation driving the earth's magnetic field out the wave, followed by the field returning to its natural place. It can induce currents in long electrical conductors such as power lines, causing damage to substations and transformers.

All three waves can damage electronics (and other things as well) but the first one is the most dangerous to delicate electronics that are unplugged.  Anything plugged in and not grounded is subject to potential damage from all three.  It's actually more complicated than that, but these are the basics.
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #61 on: January 26, 2013, 03:18:15 PM »
Quote
With your portable electronics, some of the components are likely to burn out, but that's would mostly be the extent of you problems, with the smaller equipment.
Well, burned out components in your computers, cell phones, and every other digital thingy you've come to depend on, whether you know it or now, in your daily life shouldn't be much of a problem, eh?

You'll just run to your spares cabinet, which you keep in your Faraday Cage, and quickly replace any fried components using your electrical soldering iron.  Oh, wait a minute.... ;D
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline ND Martin

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #62 on: January 26, 2013, 03:29:33 PM »
You'll just run to your spares cabinet, which you keep in your Faraday Cage, and quickly replace any fried components using your electrical soldering iron.  Oh, wait a minute.... ;D

No problemo...

Weller ML500MP Mini Butane Soldering Iron




Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #63 on: January 26, 2013, 08:22:50 PM »
Well, burned out components in your computers, cell phones, and every other digital thingy you've come to depend on, whether you know it or now, in your daily life shouldn't be much of a problem, eh?

You'll just run to your spares cabinet, which you keep in your Faraday Cage, and quickly replace any fried components using your electrical soldering iron.  Oh, wait a minute.... ;D

Yep, per ND and using some of my older equipment.   And most of our local utilities have been placed underground.  (Look Ma, no power lines!)

I'd dearly love to get a FLEX-6700, and with the right software, emulate everything from radar, cellphone, television transmitter, (my Own radio station!) sat-uplink, etc... Oh the possibilities are endless!  Just more than slightly illegal, right now.  (Mmmmm, my own digital datalink.....7mbps)

And MY spares are pretty extensive, as are those of a few of my friends.  And I know the physical location of the relay and junction sites for both Sprint and MCI/Worldcom. (Worked for them both, in the past). LCRA's, TimeWarner's, Grande's, and even Ma Bell's fiber network is mostly underground, too.  Hmmm, I might have to look up my old reserve unit, they had a EM shielded Vault/Workroom!
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline ND Martin

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #64 on: January 26, 2013, 10:46:23 PM »
Corbett Report on 'An EMP False Flag'...

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaDA0q-wq6Q" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VaDA0q-wq6Q</a>

Be afraid...be very afraid...

...and prepare for the worst.


Ok...I've had enough of this stuff now.  I'm going back to my seed catalogs and garden planning.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2013, 11:03:59 PM by ND Martin »

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #65 on: January 26, 2013, 11:08:24 PM »
Quote
And most of our local utilities have been placed underground.  (Look Ma, no power lines!)

Putting power lines underground doesn't protect them from the long wave.

The Space Review: The EMP threat: fact, fiction, and response (part 1) (page 2)
Other known effects of Test 184 were that it knocked out a major 1000-kilometer (600-mile) underground power line running from Astana… to the city of Almaty.  Several fires were reported.  In the city of Karagandy, the EMP started a fire in the city’s electrical power plant, which was connected to the long underground power line.  The shielded electrical cable was buried 3 feet (90 cm.) underground.  The geomagnetic-storm-like E3 component of the EMP… can easily penetrate into the ground.  The E3 component of the Test 184 detonation… began rising immediately after the detonation, but did not reach its peak until 20 seconds after the detonation.  The E3 pulse then decayed over the next minute or so.
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #66 on: January 27, 2013, 01:17:57 AM »
Putting power lines underground doesn't protect them from the long wave.


Of course not, the transformers are also still above ground, for the most part, but they should still survive more intact, more easily repaired, damaged greatly mitigated.  The utility guys have this neat little gadget that gives them the reading of where the next break in the power line is. (I hope enough of them survives)

Say, that might be the reason why some people are resistant to make some of the necessary changes.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2013, 11:21:55 AM »
Quote
but they should still survive more intact, more easily repaired, damaged greatly mitigated.

People keep saying things like this, but I never see any actual cites or evidence to demonstrate the truth or accuracy of the proposition.  The key word here is should.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2013, 11:23:33 AM by Bill Quick »
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline Drang

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #68 on: January 27, 2013, 11:27:15 AM »
AFAIK, all the testing has been on a fairly small scale*.  More rigorous testing should be done, but try and get anyone of the PTB to acknowledge that--or to allocate funding for it.


*Understandably.  "I know, let's knock out the grid in California and see what happens!"   :o
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Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #69 on: January 27, 2013, 12:34:28 PM »
People keep saying things like this, but I never see any actual cites or evidence to demonstrate the truth or accuracy of the proposition.  The key word here is should.

Drang's right.  When President Kennedy halted above ground testing, about the only ones that continued with above ground testing were the French and the Chinese.  We were just starting to learn about EMP, and really hadn't really developed the proper tests.  Up to that point a majority of the data that we had was from the Pacific Islands tests.  A great deal is dependent on the actual conditions of the ground cover, like how much moisture is present. (Is your lawned properly watered to mitigate an EMP? <G> )

But I hate to say this, a majority of the information that we have is lab based, not real world.  In other words, guesses, on both sides.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #70 on: January 27, 2013, 01:08:54 PM »
Lab based does not equal "guesses."
"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone

Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #71 on: January 27, 2013, 02:11:44 PM »
Lab based does not equal "guesses."

Most of the lab test that I saw did not even take into account even a majority of what ground cover consists of, because they couldn't have a good guess of what the average ground cover would be, they just blasted away at dirt, and called a done deal.  Look at the areas surrounding a majority of the above ground tests, desert.  And I tell you what, I spent a summer burying cable in our local hills, we had to use a rocksaw to cut through deep enough to bury the telephone cable.  There wasn't very much dirt there, we followed the rocksaw, buried the cable in sand, then replaced the cut rock, back into the ditch.  That rock had a little bit of metal, in chunks, I don't think it was enough to do much good, but it did get me interested enough to find that there were areas that damped EM noise, from the phone cable.  How much EM energy would get through?  Probably most of it.  But the thing is, I call it guesses, when the science isn't that good.

Sorry, but I get a bit testy, when the information I have to take action on, will have lives, in balance, and it's not as extensive as I need it to be.  It's just a personal quirk.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline Ken

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #72 on: January 27, 2013, 03:24:26 PM »
I should add another factoid.  When I was working for Sprint, we did the swing from microwave to fiber.  If you had ten teams working a link, they could bury 200 miles of fiber a day.  A single team completed burying fiber and installing relay sites from Dallas to Houston in six weeks, this was from the city limits of Dallas to the city limits of Houston.  We only used a single team, because it took almost 14 months to acquire the right of way, from the city limits of Dallas to the Junction Site, less than 15 miles.  It took 4 months to acquire the right of way in Houston, a much longer run.  ( no zoning in Houston )

But consider this, Sprint alone buried 22,000 miles of fiber, in the US, in less than 2 years.  Most of that time was needed to acquire the right of way, within city limits.
“If mankind is to survive, then throughout man’s history except for a very few years the word “ship” will mean “space ship.”
Arthur C. Clarke

Offline xtron

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #73 on: January 27, 2013, 04:12:35 PM »
so, bottom line is, in the event of a major EMP event, natural or man made, we really don't know how much,if any, damage will be done to the grid.  and we have no way of forcasting how long repairs will take.  it might be a day or two, or we may be like the sreies "revolution' and having how to survive without a grid for 6,8, 10 years.
THIS is the biggest reason most of my preps are geared towards a long term grid down scenerio.  most LTS in canned, and dehydrated, very little frozen...fuel and supplies to can what is in the freezer before it spoils.  slow sand water filter...no parts to replace...heirloom seeds and a working garden large enough to support me and mine, with some extra for barter.  hand tools for breaking more ground to support like minded associate...no power means no fuel after the car's tanks are empty. woods in easy walking distance, fuel, hunting, foraging opportunities.
of course i am armed to protect what i have, and to put a deer, rabbit, goose, or ground hog in the stew pot.

anyone who thinks he is just going to grab his gun(s), jump in the 4X4, and go "live off the land" is not prepared for anything, and will doubtfully survive a month.  when i find their bodies i will gratefully take the guns and ammo from their cold dead hands.

Offline Bill Quick

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Re: A Lot of Preppers Are Going to Die When the Lights Go Out?
« Reply #74 on: January 27, 2013, 07:15:02 PM »
Well, Ken, I get a little testy when folks offer anecdotes as if they were evidence, while lacing them with caveats like "maybe," "don't think," and "don't know," while at the same time proclaiming that actual laboratory science is "guessing."

I get tired of people claiming authority on EMP while at the same time telling me that protections against lightning strikes work equally well against massive EMPs.

And I get very tired of people handwaving about preparations they hope are in place without ever offering any actual evidence that those protections exist.

And I get most tired of the naïve notion that government is working to protect us against such eventualities when there doesn't seem to be any indication that is actually factual at all.

xtron: we do know that EMP at certain strengths will cause certain effects.  This knowledge is not subject to political correctness, the desires of politicians to spend the money elsewhere, or utility companie's concerns for their bottom lines.

Some may be foolish enough to trust in such things, but I am not.  Anybody remember when we were told that what happened on 9/11 was "unimaginable," and therefore how could we have been expected to protect against it, or prepare for it?

I can easily imagine surviving government officials standing atop vast mounds of bodies in the aftermath of an EMP strike, Carrington Event, or huge CME, and tell those of us who remain exactly the same thing.

And if there is any justice in the world, those officials will immediately be hung by the neck from the nearest standing lamp post.  Right along with the phony experts who told them there was nothing to worry about, which was exactly what they wanted to hear.

"You can get a lot farther with a kind word and a gun than a kind word alone."  --   Al Capone


 

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